Brexit: 'Surge' in searches on Irish passports, says Google

Google searches related to the EU referendum spiked in the hours after polls closed

Google has said there was a dramatic spike in searches for Irish passport applications as news of the UK's decision to leave the EU broke.

The overwhelming majority of the searches came from Northern Ireland.

The search giant also reported more searches for "what happens if we leave the EU" around midnight on 23 June and for other phrases like "British independence day" and "Norway EU" .

One expert cautioned that the data does not reveal actual volumes of searches.

On the financial implications, Google Trends said it had recorded the highest-ever search interest in sterling.

During the early hours of the morning, the pound fell by more than 10% - to a level not seen since 1985 - before slightly rebounding.

Image captionGoogle tweeted some of the data while results were being reported - the time shown is Pacific Daylight Time (PDT)

And there was a spike in searches for "Move to Gibraltar" - from London users - after the EU referendum polls closed.

Tobais Preis, at Warwick Business School, cautioned that search data should be interpreted with special care as only relative figures are known, so spikes in some specific activity could be caused by a small number of people.

Prof Preis added that the phrase "David Cameron" vastly outperformed searches relating to Irish passports and "what happens if we leave the EU" between the hours of 04:00 and 06:00 BST.

"It could be the case, for example, that people supporting or opposing the idea of leaving the EU are trying to understand the position of the other party," he also told the BBC.

"It's pretty unlikely that all those people who are searching for answers will up sticks and move," added Jonathan Freeman, director of digital consumer insights firm i2 Media Research.

"Certainly a lot of people were pretty shocked, it was very close - people would have just been wanting to find as much information as they could," Mr Freeman - who is also a psychologist at Goldsmiths, University of London - told the BBC.

How is Google Trends data calculated?

Although it might not immediately be obvious, Google Trends graphs do not track the absolute volume of searches over time.

Instead, they give an indication of relative search popularity.

"To do this, each data point is divided by the total searches of the geography and time range it represents, to compare relative popularity," explains Google on the Trends website.

"The resulting numbers are then scaled to a range of 0 to 100."

For example, the firm adds, users in Fiji and Canada could have the same value for a given search term if they're equally likely to look for it during the same period - regardless of the actual number of searches made.

Source: bbc

World stocks in freefall as UK votes for EU exit

World stocks headed for one the biggest slumps on record on Friday as a decision by Britain to leave the European Union triggered 8 percent falls for Europe's biggest bourses and a record plunge for sterling.

Such a body blow to global confidence could well prevent the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates as planned this year, and might even provoke a new round of emergency policy easing from all the major central banks.

Risk assets were scorched as investors fled to the traditional safe-harbors of top-rated government debt, Japanese yen and gold.

Billions were wiped from share values as Europe saw London's FTSE .FTSE drop 6 percent in early deals, Germany's .DAX and France's CAC 40 .FCHI slump 7.5 and 9 percent and Italian and Spanish markets plunge more than 11 percent.

The rout was compounded by the fact markets had rallied on Thursday having become increasingly convinced that UK voters would opt to stay in the EU.

Britain's big banks took a $130 billion battering with Lloyds (LLOY.L) and Barclays (BARC.L) plunging as much as 30 percent. EMINI S&P 500 futures ESc1 were down 4 percent and Japan's Nikkei .N225 ended down 7.9 percent.

The British pound collapsed no less than 18 U.S. cents, easily the biggest fall in living memory, to hit its lowest since 1985. The euro in turn slid 3.2 percent to $1.1012 EUR= as investors feared for its very future.

Having campaigned to keep the country in the EU, British Prime Minister David Cameron confirmed he would step down.

Results showed a 51.9/48.1 percent split for leaving, setting the UK on an uncertain path and dealing the largest setback to European efforts to forge greater unity since World War Two.

Sterling sank a staggering 10 percent at one point and was last at $1.3582 GBP=, having carved out a range of $1.3228 to $1.5022. The fall was even larger than during the global financial crisis and the currency was moving two or three cents in the blink of an eye.

"It's an extraordinary move for financial markets and also for democracy," said co-head of portfolio investments of London-based currency specialist Millennium Global Richard Benson.

"The market is pricing interest rate cuts from the big central banks and we assume there will be a global liquidity add from them in the next few hours," he added.

The shockwaves affected all asset classes and regions.

The safe-haven yen sprang higher to stand at 102.15 per dollar JPY=, having been as low as 106.81 at one stage. The dollar peak decline of 4 percent was the largest since 1998.

That prompted warnings from Japanese officials that excessive forex moves were undesirable. Indeed, traders were wary in case global central banks chose to step in to calm the volatility.

The Bank of England said it would take all necessary steps to shield Britain's economy. A source told Reuters it was in touch with other major central banks. The Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda added his bank was also ready to provide liquidity if needed to ensure market stability.

Other currencies across Asia and in eastern Europe as it woke up suffered badly on worries that alarmed investors could pull funds out of emerging markets. Poland, where many of the eastern Europeans in Britain come from, saw its zloty PLN= slump 5 percent.

RECESSION FEARS

Europe's natural safety play, the 10-year German government bond, surged to send its yields tumbling back into negative territory and a new record low. [EUR/GVD]

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS slid almost 5 percent, while Shanghai stocks .SSEC lost 1.1 percent.

Financial markets have been gripped for months by worries about what Brexit, or a British exit from the European Union, would mean for Europe's stability.

"Obviously, there will be a large spill-over effects across all global economies if the "Leave" vote wins. Not only will the UK go into recession, Europe will follow suit," was the gloomy prediction of Matt Sherwood, head of investment strategy at fund manager Perpetual in Sydney.

Investors duly stampeded to sovereign bonds, with U.S. 10-year Treasury futures TYc1 jumping over 2 points in an extremely rare move for Asian hours.

Yields on the cash note US10YT=RR fell 24 basis points to 1.49 percent, the steepest one-day drop since 2009 and the lowest yield since 2012.

As investors sought safer assets, the rally even extended to UK bonds, despite ratings agency Standard and Poor's warning it would likely downgrade the country's triple A rating if it left the EU.

Yields on benchmark 10-year gilts fell 27 basis points to 1.108 pct GB10YT=TWEB.

Across the Atlantic, investors were pricing in even less chance of another hike in U.S. interest rates given the Federal Reserve had cited a British exit from the EU as one reason to be cautious on tightening.

"It adds weight to the camp that the Fed would be on hold. A July (hike) is definitely off the table," Mike Baele, managing director with the private client reserve group at U.S. Bank in Portland, Oregon.

Fed funds futures <0> were even toying with the chance that the next move could be a cut in U.S. rates.

Commodities likewise swung lower as a Brexit would be seen as a major threat to global growth. U.S. crude CLc1 shed $3.00 to $47.11 a barrel in erratic trade while Brent LCOc1 fell as much as 6 percent to $47.83 before clawing back to $48.18.

Industrial metal copper CMCU3 sank 3 percent but gold XAU= galloped more than 6 percent higher thanks to its perceived safe haven status. [GOL/]

Source : reuters

In Scotland, Trump celebrates ‘Brexit’ vote

TURNBERRY, Scotland — Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump celebrated Britain’s stunning vote to leave the European Union Friday in Ayrshire, Scotland, saying that the people of the United Kingdom have “taken their country back.”

“I think it’s a great thing that happened," Trump told reporters, according to the New York Times, shortly after his helicopter landed at his Trump Turnberry golf resort. “People are angry, all over the world people, they’re angry.”

His two-day visit to Scotland comes during a historic and tumultuous moment for the United Kingdom. Voters defied the political establishment Thursday by formally deciding to cut ties with the European Union. The vote, which Trump called a "fantastic thing" and "historic," had immediate political and economic repercussions in the United Kingdom and around the world. The value of the British pound plummeted as stock markets dropped sharply globally. On Friday, Prime Minister David Cameron announced his intention to resign after waging a failed campaign to remain in the E.U.

“They’re angry over borders, they’re angry over people coming into the country and taking over, nobody even knows who they are,” Trump said, echoing the populist pitch he has made in the United States. “They’re angry about many, many things. They took back control of their country. It’s a great thing.”

Voters in Scotland overwhelmingly voted to remain in the European Union, but were outnumbered by voters in England and Wales. The sharp division could give new life to a push in Scotland for independence from the United Kingdom.

“The people of the United Kingdom have exercised the sacred right of all free peoples. They have declared their independence from the European Union, and have voted to reassert control over their own politics, borders and economy,” Trump said in a formal statement released by his campaign Friday morning. “A Trump Administration pledges to strengthen our ties with a free and independent Britain, deepening our bonds in commerce, culture and mutual defense.”

When asked a few weeks ago about the referendum by the Hollywood Reporter, Trump seemed to not understand the question at first.

"Huh?" Trump said in the interview, which was published on June 1.

"Brexit," reporter Michael Wolff repeated a second time.

"Hmm," Trump said.

"The Brits leaving the EU," Wolff prompted.

"Oh yeah, I think they should leave," Trump said.

On Friday morning, Trump attended an opening ceremony at Trump Turnberry, a luxury resort on Scotland's western coast, and is expected to also visit a golf resort he owns near Aberdeen on the eastern coast. Scotland is the birthplace of his mother, who immigrated to New York as a teenager.

The morning started quietly in the tiny village of Turnberry as dozens of reporters showed up to a muddy parking lot to be transported to Trump's resort about half a mile down the road. There was a cool wind off the Irish Sea and the temperature hovered in the mid-50s.

Just ahead of Trump's arrival, guests and resort staff members wearing red caps lined up on the grand stairwell leading from the street to the resort on a hilltop perch. A handful of men wearing dark suits and ties stood watch at the resort's various driveways but there was no heavy police presence as expected by locals — and is usually seen at Trump's political events in the United States.

But unlike those rowdy rallies, this event featured two bagpipers.

Turnberry was built more than a century ago, and purchased by Trump in 2014. The property has undergone extensive renovations and reopened on June 1.

Most of the local coverage of Trump's arrival focused on the police's grand strategy to protect him during his visit, which the Daily Record described as "a ring of steel around Trump."

The trip is mostly a business one for Trump, although he will likely be asked questions about the campaign during a press conference with dozens of American political reporters.

The journey is the latest example of the fuzzy, and sometimes invisible, line between Trump the presumptive GOP nominee and Trump the businessman — an arrangement that many ethics experts, including many fellow Republicans, view as inappropriate or worse. They say Trump should take formal steps to separate himself from his business and financial holdings, both domestic and foreign, as he seeks to enter the White House, just as Mitt Romney and other candidates have done.

At about 9:15 a.m., Trump's helicopter appeared in the cloudy Scottish sky. Down below were dozens of reporters and resort staff members. The white helicopter, with the word TRUMP written in bold red letters, landed on the grass in front of the crowd. The staff and resort guests burst into cheers as Trump stepped off the chopper and made his way inside, shouting out a few comments to reporters.

A handful of curious locals watched the spectacle, including one man with a pro-Trump sign who said that the millionaire has pumped money into the region.

About 20 minutes later, after everyone had gone inside to escape the cold, a bus filled with protesters from Glasgow pulled up. About 50 people disembarked and handed out pink and yellow signs reading: "No to racism. No to Trump." The group refused to stand inside a gated pen that police set up for them, but instead insisted on  lining the road in front of Turnberry. More than a dozen local police officers soon arrived, along with four riding horses. About 20 minutes later, two more buses pulled up, bringing the number of protesters to a couple hundred.

The protesters chanted a number of things, including "Trump go home!" and "Say it loud, say it clear, refugees are welcome here!" An organizer on a megaphone belted out: "Trump always plays the racist card at all times!"

Mike Ross, 48, wore a T-shirt featuring Trump's face and this message: "Donald Trump, Making Ayrshire Great Again." He carried a sign with the same image and message.

"He has invested a load in this place," said Ross, who has gone back to school to study business.

Ross said that he voted Thursday for the U.K. to leave the E.U. and that he was overjoyed to see the results on Friday morning. He said that it's time for the country to have it's own sovereignty and "rule ourselves," especially when it comes to issues such as immigration.

"I can't believe it," Ross said. "I have had a smile on my face all morning."

He sees a number of parallels between the Thursday vote in the U.K. and the U.S. presidential election.

"I like him. I like the way he's changing politics and the stuffy political correctness," Ross said of Trump. "He's breaking all of the protocols. The leave vote was part of that. People are fed up."

Source: washingtonpost.com

What happens now the UK has voted Brexit - and what is Article 50?

More than three years after David Cameron unveiled his strategy to reform Europe and put it to a referendum, Britain has voted to leave and the Prime Minister has resigned.

It is the greatest disaster to befall the block in its 59-year history. The road ahead is unclear. No state has left the European Union before, and the rules for exit  – contained in Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon – are brief. 

Mr Cameron resigned as Prime Minister shortly after 8am, announcing that he thinks Britain should have a new Prime Minister in place by the start of the Conservative conference in October.  He will leave the task of triggering Article 50 to his successor.

Cameron's voice breaks during emotional resignation speechPlay!04:42

What to expect today

Martin Schulz, the President of the European Parliament, meets the Conference of Presidents at around 8.30am, to agree a common position from MEPs. They are expected to demand that Article 50 is triggered immediately, to prevent months of uncertainty.

At 10.30am, the four most powerful men in Brussels – Donald Tusk, president of the Council, Jean-Claude Juncker of the Commission, Mark Rutte, the Dutch premier who holds the rotating presidency of the Council, and Mr Schulz meet. They will speak afterwards.

Martin Schulz and Jean-Claude Juncker

Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank, has said it is ready to intervene to steady the markets. Central bankers from Japan to Switzerland have also offered to step in to provide additional liquidity - a measure not seen since the financial crisis. 

 On Saturday, the foreign ministers of the founding six member states – France, Germany, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Italy and Belgium – will meet to discuss the implications of the British vote.

The summit

David Cameron will next see his counterparts at a European Council summit on Tuesday and Wednesday next week.

The deal, struck after months of negotiation last summer, has evaporated under a ‘self-destruct’ clause.

He will be under intense pressure to activate Article 50 and commence exit negotiations. Leaders do not want to be drawn into months and years of haggling over Britain’s status: “Out is out,” Jean-Claude Juncker said on Wednesday.

Donald Tusk

By contrast, the official Out campaign has said there is no need to trigger Article 50 until informal negotiations have taken place – potentially lasting years.

Also on the agenda is a discussion of the migration crisis, including tentative proposals for “compacts” to speedily deport migrants back to Africa and the current deployment of naval craft off Libya to intercept smugglers. Britain has a major role in this – a British warship is deployed in the EU’s naval operation and a second has been promised – but the crisis takes a back seat.

Article 50 – and a new deal

Triggering Article 50, formally notifying the intension to withdraw, starts a two-year clock running. After that, the Treaties that govern membership no longer apply to Britain.  The terms of exit will be negotiated between Britain’s 27 counterparts, and each will have a veto over the conditions.

It will also be subject to ratification in national parliaments, meaning, for example, that Belgian MPs could stymie the entire process.

Two vast negotiating teams will be created, far larger than those seen in the British renegotiation. The EU side is likely to be headed by one of the current Commissioners.

Untying Britain from the old membership is the easy bit. Harder would be agreeing a new trading relationship, establishing what tariffs and other barriers to entry are permitted, and agreeing on obligations such as free movement. Such a process, EU leaders claim, could take another five years.

Business leaders want the easiest terms possible, to prevent economic harm. But political leaders say the conditions will be brutal to discourage other states from following suit.

The Department for Brexit

One option will be to simply recreate EU laws as British statute. But Civil Service insiders expect a new Brexit government to opt for something much more radical, and to use the opportunity of “throwing off the shackles” to re-regulate Britain.

European Union and British Union Flag flying in front of Big Ben and the Houses of Parliament CREDIT: ALAMY

It means that the Government would have to do three acts simultaneous: negotiate a new deal with Brussels, win a series of major bilateral trade deals around the world, and revise its own governance as EU law recedes.

Running the show would be an effective “Ministry for Brexit”, under a senior minister.

Officials expect the scrapping of EU law could result in an avalanche of new legislation in every corner of Whitehall – perhaps 25 Bills in every Queen’s Speech for a decade.

Hundreds of Treasury lawyers and experts would have to be hired for areas – such as health and safety, financial services and employment – where Britain had lost competence to Brussels. Meanwhile, a Trade Ministry will be required, with hundreds of new negotiators, to establish new deals around the world.

Brussels reels

The focus in Brussels now turns to holding the project together.

Proposals for closer defence integration, prepared by Federica Mogherini, the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs, were due to be sent to national governments today. That is likely to be put on hold. But building up the EU’s defence co-operation is regarded by France and Germany as an obvious way of rebooting the project.

Jean-Claude Juncker has called for tighter integration in the event of a Brexit, and has laid out plans for integration of the Eurozone, including a treasury, in order to prevent a recurrence of the Greek crisis. Hitherto, member states have not been ready for that conversation – but the crisis of Brexit is likely to push it up the agenda.

At the same time, leaders fear that Brexit could trigger a domino effect as the bloc without Britain becomes less attractive to liberal, rich northern states such as Denmark and the Netherlands, where demands are growing for copy-cat plebiscites.

The Dutch elections are held in March next year, the French in April and May and Germany in the Autumn. If an independent Britain proves to be a success, the bloc could quickly unravel.

On March 25, 2017, European leaders will mark the sixtieth anniversary of the signing of the Treaty of Rome, the EU’s founding document. It will be a fraught celebration.

Source : telegraph